Capitale de Combat

 

Delhi’s elections are never straightforward. The city is a political battleground, unpredictable and constantly shifting, where no one really knows how the dice will land. Even now, as the next election draws near, the stakes are high, and the final result seems impossible to predict.

Right now, the whispers on the ground tell me one thing: the BJP might secure around 33 seats, with a vote share of 46%. AAP, ever the challenger, could win 29 seats and claim 42% of the vote. Congress? Well, their future looks bleak. No more than 3 seats, possibly even fewer, and a sad 8% of the vote share. Once dominant in Delhi, their grip has loosened to the point of near irrelevance. But how did they fall so far? How did a party that once held the capital's reins for decades crumble into the background?

To understand this, I have to take you back, to the very beginning of Delhi’s modern political history.

It wasn’t always like this. The BJP’s entry into Delhi politics was once met with excitement. I can still remember the days when Madan Lal Khurana took office as the first BJP Chief Minister of Delhi. There was a sense of hope, a feeling that a new chapter was beginning. The capital, they thought, was ready for change. But that optimism quickly turned to chaos. Leadership instability—internal squabbles between Khurana, Sahib Singh Verma, and Sushma Swaraj—kept the party in constant flux, and the cracks began to show. The party struggled to maintain its footing, and in 1998, it was ousted by Congress in a bitter defeat. From that point on, the BJP would find itself exiled from Delhi for 26 long years. 

What does it take for a party to claw its way back after such a long exile? The answer isn’t simple. The BJP may have established a well-organised machine over the years, but the damage done in those early days is still felt today. Their struggle in Delhi remains a defining part of their narrative.

Now, fast forward to the present. The city is a different place. Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have taken over the political landscape in a way no one could have imagined just a decade ago. The party’s rise was like a lightning strike—unexpected, powerful, and unstoppable. Kejriwal’s anti-corruption message struck a chord with the people, and suddenly, Delhi’s politics had a new force to reckon with. I still remember the first signs of AAP’s victory, the excitement that spread through the city. They weren't just winning elections; they were shifting the balance of power, pushing Congress aside in the process.

But as AAP’s grip on Delhi tightened, I couldn’t help but wonder: will their confrontational style, their combative approach to governance, be sustainable? Kejriwal’s popularity is undeniable, but in the long run, can AAP keep this momentum going? Will their brand of politics continue to resonate, or will the city tire of the constant battles? I find myself asking whether the rise of AAP is a flash in the pan or the beginning of a new era. 

It wasn’t always this way for Congress. I can still picture Sheila Dikshit, the longest-serving Chief Minister in Delhi’s history. Under her leadership, the city transformed. Roads, infrastructure, urban planning—Delhi became a modern city under her rule. She was the face of progress, the symbol of Congress’ dominance. But that image came crumbling down. Allegations of corruption began to circle her administration, and with it, the party’s once-sturdy foundation started to crack. As the years passed, it became clear that Congress could no longer claim the trust of Delhi’s people. When AAP emerged, it was the final blow.

I can still feel the shock of the assembly elections when Congress’ vote share dropped to a mere 4%. From leading the city to nearly disappearing from its political map—it was a fall too fast and too steep to ignore. Even in the Lok Sabha elections, their numbers remained weak, and now, with each passing day, their chances of reclaiming the assembly seem slimmer. What happened to the party that once held Delhi in its grip? The decline of Congress is a mystery that still hangs over the capital.

Now, with the stage set, the election’s outcome rests on the battlegrounds—constituencies that will determine the final winner. Narela, Rohini, Shalimar Bagh, Janakpuri—these areas are crucial for the BJP, and their ability to expand their base will be the key to victory. AAP, on the other hand, holds strongholds in Sultanpur Majra, Okhla, Seemapuri, and Ambedkar Nagar, and it will be fascinating to see whether they can maintain their dominance. But it’s not just about where the parties are strong; voter turnout could also decide the game. A high turnout might benefit AAP, but if fewer people vote, the BJP could pull off a surprise victory. 

And then there’s Congress—though seemingly irrelevant, could they play an unexpected role in this election? A slight uptick in their vote share could split the anti-incumbency vote, inadvertently helping the BJP. It’s a game of percentages, and every vote matters.

As I reflect on the political turmoil, I can’t help but recall the debate that has raged for years over Delhi’s status as a Union Territory with a legislative assembly. There was a time when full statehood was a dream for all parties—Congress, the BJP, and even AAP. But something strange happened when AAP came to power. Kejriwal’s rise was a turning point, and as the party grew in influence, the BJP silently accepted the Union Territory status of Delhi. It wasn’t a public declaration of defeat, but a quiet, pragmatic shift in perspective. Delhi’s future may be shaped not by the loud calls for statehood, but by the subtle political manoeuvring of those who understand that the city’s power lies in its pragmatism, not its idealism.

The story of Delhi’s elections is still unfolding, and the final chapter is yet to be written. The suspense builds with each passing day. AAP continues to dominate, but the BJP is quietly organizing its forces, waiting for the right moment to strike. Congress, despite its fall from grace, could still play a role in this drama. In the end, it will be the voters of Delhi who decide the outcome, their choices marking the next turning point in the city’s long and unpredictable political saga.

As the election draws nearer, the questions multiply. Will AAP continue to ride high, or will the BJP make a stunning comeback? Can Congress find its way back from the brink? The answers are out there, but right now, they remain tantalizingly out of reach, waiting for the moment when the voters of Delhi reveal their cards.