Path to 272+

As I look at the political landscape leading up to 2025, I can’t help but sense that the BJP is inching closer to the magical figure of 272 seats in Parliament. The signs are unmistakable, and recent political developments suggest that the party’s strategy is falling into place.  

Take Bihar, for example. Amit Shah’s recent visit sparked a political stir, particularly when he was asked about the leadership for the next assembly election. His response—pointedly avoiding any mention of Nitish Kumar—caught my attention. Why would Shah make such a calculated move? It’s clear he believes the BJP holds the upper hand. The buzz is that at least 10 of the 12 JD(U) MPs are ready to switch sides if Nitish Kumar steps out of line. Tejashwi Yadav’s cryptic remark about JD(U) leaders “playing a game” with Kumar only deepens my suspicion that something big is brewing in Bihar.  

Maharashtra is another state that fascinates me. I’ve been following reports about Sharad Pawar’s apparent willingness to merge his faction of the NCP with the BJP to secure a future for his daughter Supriya Sule. Whether this happens remains to be seen, but the BJP is already eyeing a split in Pawar’s camp. I’ve read that six of the NCP’s eight MPs are ready to join the BJP, which could be a game-changer. And then there’s the Shiv Sena (UBT)—with nine MPs and 16 MLAs reportedly leaning toward the BJP, the party seems to be consolidating its position in the state.  

Jharkhand, too, seems to offer the BJP opportunities. I’ve noticed rumblings about three out of four JMM MPs being ready to cross over, along with two independents waiting for the right moment. That’s five more potential seats in the BJP’s pocket.  

Even the Samajwadi Party isn’t immune to this political churn. I’ve seen reports suggesting that many within the SP are unhappy with Akhilesh Yadav’s recent remarks against Hinduism. Could this discontent lead to defections? I wouldn’t rule it out.  

Andhra Pradesh seems like a more stable scenario for the BJP. Despite rumours, I don’t think the TDP will withdraw its support from the NDA. The party has been backing key BJP bills like the Waqf Amendment Act and ‘One Nation, One Election,’ which makes me believe their alliance will hold steady.  

But the wild card, in my view, is Nitish Kumar. His history of shifting loyalties based on his ambitions for the Chief Minister’s post makes him a perpetual enigma. I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to strike yet another deal, though whether the BJP accommodates him is a different matter.  

When I add up all these pieces, I can see the BJP getting closer to 272. The numbers are tantalisingly within reach. But I also know that politics is a fickle game, and predictions can turn on their head overnight.  

Still, one thing is clear to me: the BJP is relentless in its pursuit of a majority. By 2025, the party could very well achieve it—if its strategies align with ground realities. Only time will tell whether these ambitions become a reality, but for now, it’s hard to ignore the signs pointing in that direction.  

(Based on most reliable sources)