The Karnataka Gambit

As I watched the political intrigue unfold in Karnataka over the past week, the dinner hosted by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah on January 2 stood out as more than just a social gathering. For those of us following the state’s politics closely, this was a clear statement of intent, a show of strength amidst mounting challenges within the Congress party and from the BJP-led Opposition.  

The venue itself, the residence of Public Works Minister Satish Jarkiholi, wasn’t chosen by accident. Jarkiholi is a loyal ally of Siddaramaiah and a key figure among the SC/ST and OBC communities, the backbone of the Congress vote bank in Karnataka. The guest list reinforced this narrative. Many ministers from these communities were present, subtly highlighting the Chief Minister’s efforts to consolidate his base. But the most glaring aspect was the absence of Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, who was vacationing in Turkey with his family.  

To me, the meeting was more than just casual camaraderie. It felt like a power move, a strategic bid to counter Shivakumar’s growing influence within the party. Shivakumar, after all, has long been seen as a rival, despite their public assurances of unity. The whispers that some ministers are lobbying to replace him as the Karnataka Congress chief only add fuel to the fire.  

On the other hand, the BJP hasn’t been sitting idle. Leader of the Opposition R Ashoka’s prediction of the Congress government’s collapse anytime soon after felt more calculated than spontaneous. His claim that disgruntled Congress MLAs are in touch with the BJP raises an uncomfortable question: how much longer can the Congress hold its flock together?  

It’s no secret that Siddaramaiah’s leadership has been under scrutiny, particularly after the MUDA scam allegations involving his family. His decision to return the housing sites allotted to his wife was a move to silence critics, but it hasn’t entirely quelled the murmurs of dissent. And then there are the administrative lapses Ashoka pointed out —delayed payments to milk producers and ambulance drivers - that only add to the perception of a government struggling to keep its house in order.  

Yet, Siddaramaiah has his wins. The Congress party's recent bypoll victories showcased the enduring support from minorities and backward communities, which are integral to his political strategy. But even these victories come with a caveat. Can Siddaramaiah retain this momentum while fending off Shivakumar’s ambitions?  

I can’t help but think back to similar dinners in the past, such as the October 2023 meeting at Home Minister G Parameshwara’s residence. These gatherings aren’t just about food, they’re about alliances and future strategies. The question now is whether Siddaramaiah’s camp can outmanoeuvre Shivakumar’s, or whether their rivalry will erode the Congress party's chances of stability in Karnataka.  

For me, the BJP’s role in this drama is equally fascinating. Ashoka’s gleeful predictions of a Congress collapse may sound like bravado, but there’s no denying the BJP’s readiness to exploit any opportunity. Their "Operation Kamala" playbook isn’t new, and the Congress would do well to remember its devastating effects in the past.  

As a political observer, I see the Congress at a critical juncture. Siddaramaiah’s dinner diplomacy may have solidified his position for now, but it also exposes the party’s fragile unity. With Lok Sabha elections around the corner, any signs of disarray could have national implications.  

From where I stand, the Congress faces a daunting challenge: maintaining internal harmony while countering an emboldened BJP. Siddaramaiah may have won this round, but the real test lies ahead. Will the Congress rise above its internal divisions, or will it become yet another victim of its own ambitions? Only time will tell.