The Trap the Opposition Never Saw Coming

When I first heard the opposition cheer the Centre’s decision to conduct a caste census, I almost laughed. After all the noise they’ve made over it—especially Rahul Gandhi, who turned it into a campaign war cry during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections—you’d think they’d be doing victory laps. But if you look closely, you’ll notice something else: unease. Because now that the census is finally happening, the very people who demanded it are realising they’ve walked straight into a trap.

Let me explain.

The caste enumeration isn’t starting anytime soon. September or October is the earliest it could begin. And if the government sticks to that timeline, the data won’t be ready before the end of 2026, or maybe early 2027. That might sound like boring bureaucracy, but in Indian politics, timing is everything.

Because guess what else is happening in that exact window? The Bihar Assembly elections will be in full swing when the process begins, and the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections will be heating up when it ends. Two of the most politically sensitive states, both deeply shaped by caste dynamics, will be front and centre while the Centre plays its trump card.

But here’s the kicker: this isn’t just a caste census. It includes updating the National Population Register (NPR)—and that’s the first step toward the National Register of Indian Citizens (NRIC). And that, my friends, changes everything.

You see, the NPR isn’t just a list of who lives where. It’s a data-heavy, verification-driven exercise that could eventually separate citizens from non-citizens. It includes biometric data, public objections, and citizenship verification. Once finalised, it leads to the issuance of official identity cards under the Citizenship Act, 1955.

Remember how the opposition responded to the NPR-NRC-CAA trio back in 2020? Twenty parties, led by the Congress, passed a resolution demanding it all be scrapped. They called it unconstitutional, communal, and anti-poor. Some states refused to carry out NPR enumeration altogether. But now, in their excitement over the caste census, they seem to have forgotten they’re also signing up for the very process they once labelled “divisive.”

And here’s where things get even more uncomfortable for Rahul Gandhi.

If caste data is being collected and released, he will have to declare his caste too—something he has never done publicly. When Anurag Thakur dared to raise this in Parliament, Congress MPs exploded with indignation. But honestly, it’s a fair question. If you’re going to build your politics on caste justice, people deserve to know where you stand in that hierarchy.

And this isn’t just about caste anymore. Rahul Gandhi’s citizenship status is under scrutiny too. There’s a case pending, and the High Court has asked the Centre to clarify. The next hearing is on May 5. So yes, things are getting personal for the Congress leader, and the census could force his hand in more ways than one.

We’ve already seen what happens when citizenship questions turn real. After the recent Pahalgam terror attack, reports emerged of Pakistanis living in India for years—some even voting, accessing welfare schemes, holding jobs. They were deported only after the attack. A nationwide NPR-linked census could expose thousands of such cases. And that’s exactly what has the opposition rattled. Because for all their talk about marginalised communities, this data might end up dismantling a few vote banks built on undocumented identities.

What’s even more ironic is that Jawaharlal Nehru himself opposed caste-based enumeration. In 2011, P. Chidambaram reportedly reminded colleagues of Nehru’s stance and even raised the matter with then PM Manmohan Singh. Today, the Congress is giving Rahul Gandhi credit for forcing the Centre to act. But let’s not forget—it’s not just the Modi government that’s playing political chess here.

The real game begins in Bihar, where a caste survey has already taken place. Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar now have a chance to reshape the narrative and challenge Lalu Yadav’s long-standing MY (Muslim–Yadav) alliance. If they can unite broader OBC sentiment, the RJD’s caste arithmetic could collapse.

Then there’s West Bengal and finally, Uttar Pradesh in 2027—the big one. Congress has tied up with Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party under the PDA (Pichhda–Dalit–Alpsankhyak) formula. It worked in patches in the last election. But now the BJP has a counter: own the caste conversation and combine it with the legitimacy of NPR data. That’s a potent mix for winning over OBC and Dalit voters, especially if the opposition is seen as evasive or inconsistent.

So yes, the opposition wanted this. They fought for it. They even tried to take credit for it. But as the process unfolds, they may find themselves regretting they ever asked for it in the first place.

They thought the caste census would empower them. What they didn’t realise is—it might just expose them.