Modi, Mandal & Mohan Rewriting the Poll Script

As Bihar inches closer to the 2025 Assembly elections, signs are beginning to suggest a familiar political tide—one that is slowly but surely gathering strength behind the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). On the surface, it may seem like just another high-stakes contest. But on the ground, something deeper is unfolding: a cocktail of national security sentiment, precise caste outreach, and a fragmented opposition narrative is propelling the BJP into a position of clear advantage.

The Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir appears to have catalysed public sentiment in unexpected ways. In tea stalls, autorickshaws, and village chaupals across Bihar, the attack is being discussed not just in terms of tragedy—but in the context of leadership. People are asking who will respond decisively. Who can be trusted in a moment of crisis?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swift authorisation of retaliatory freedom to the armed forces has been received with quiet approval. There’s no mass mobilisation or aggressive sloganeering—just a growing sense among the public that national security under the BJP is in firm hands. In contrast, the Congress’s muddled response—part tough talk, part accusation, part confusion—has done little to assure voters.

Underscoring this climate was the quiet, significant visit of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat to Bihar. His meetings with swayamsevaks and community leaders in Patna and other districts signalled more than just routine organisational review. The visit, according to observers, was a strategic nudge to galvanise the Sangh's grassroots network in the run-up to the elections. Bhagwat’s presence not only energised the cadre but also reassured traditional supporters that ideological grounding and national resolve remain at the core of the BJP's wider ecosystem.

But it’s not just about Pakistan or Pahalgam. Beneath the headlines, the BJP is quietly executing a caste mobilisation strategy with surgical precision. Over 1,000 caste-based conferences are being planned across Bihar—four to five in every Assembly segment. These events, though not officially branded as BJP programmes, are being organised with the full backing of its local machinery and aligned community networks.

The strategy is clear: celebrate the icons of each community, honour their legacy, and quietly align them with the BJP's broader narrative. In SC-dominated areas, conferences revolve around Sant Ravidas, Dr Ambedkar, Gaureya Baba. In Kshatriya belts, Maharana Pratap and Veer Kunwar Singh serve as rallying figures. Vaishyas are being mobilised through Bhama Shah Sammelans. The locations? Right in the heart of each constituency—where the votes live, breathe, and talk.

Senior BJP leaders, especially those from the same caste as the target community, are being assigned as speakers. Cabinet ministers, chief ministers from BJP-ruled states, and central party leaders will all feature. It’s a silent campaign of validation and visibility—and it’s working.

Communities like the Kurmis and Kushwahas, once seen as drifting, are now being courted through representation. The BJP, under leaders like Samrat Choudhary and now Dilip Jaiswal, has ensured Kurmi and Chandravanshi faces find space in the Nitish Kumar cabinet and in the Rajya Sabha. Behind this, the hand of State BJP General Secretary (Organisation) Bhikhubhai Dalsaniya is widely acknowledged. The social outreach is not symbolic; it is structural.

In stark contrast stands the Congress and its INDIA bloc allies. While demanding a caste census, the opposition now finds itself floundering after the Centre announced plans to conduct one. Mixed signals from Congress leaders have further complicated matters—some accusing the government of distracting the public, others attempting to appear firm on national security, but none offering a coherent or confident alternative.

Leadership also remains a major problem. Rahul Gandhi’s image, despite recent efforts, continues to appear reactive rather than assertive. His once-powerful corporate-targeting campaigns have lost steam. The party is now left clinging to demands like raising the reservation ceiling and seeking quotas in the private sector—moves seen more as last-ditch efforts than visionary proposals.

In the villages and small towns of Bihar, the message is getting clearer: the BJP has organisation, narrative, and momentum on its side. The opposition has confusion, contradiction, and a leadership gap.

If the current trajectory holds, the BJP-led NDA may not just return to power—it may do so with a renewed mandate that reshapes the caste and identity arithmetic of Bihar politics once again.