NDA will not win, but INDI Alliance will lose!

 

The circus has returned to town. Bihar, that eternal theatre of Indian democracy, is once again preparing to choose its masters. The posters are up, the processions are loud, and the candidates — God bless their optimism — have begun promising jobs, roads, and dreams they themselves don’t believe in.

I have been watching elections for half my life, and one thing never changes: the Indian voter is far wiser than the Indian politician gives him credit for. He listens, nods, and then does precisely what he has to — often surprising even himself.

By the time you read this, the last date for filing nominations would have passed, and Bihar’s political akhara will have its final list of wrestlers. Some may still quietly withdraw, either for family reasons or for that timeless Indian reason — understanding. But the stage is set.

Now, people keep asking me what will happen this time. I tell them what I’ve told them for fifteen years: I don’t conduct opinion polls, I conduct autopsies — of political intent. I read the body language, the alliances, the betrayals, and the ambitions. And when I smell decay, I say so.  And, if I go wrong, I admit it. I never claimed to be a saint — only human.

I have seen enough of these spectacles to know one eternal law: elections are not won by who deserves to win; they are won by who is less determined to lose.

Let me begin with the obvious. The INDI Alliance — a noble idea strangled by its own egos — is once again preparing for defeat with all the sincerity of a student preparing for his supplementary exams. Rahul Gandhi, forever in search of his political puberty, still believes elections are fought by mood, not management. Tejashwi Yadav, young, ambitious, and impatient, wants to be the hero of a film whose script hasn’t yet been written. The Congress and RJD are like two relatives at a funeral — both mourning, but both secretly wishing the other were in the coffin.

Meanwhile, Nitish Kumar, the great survivor of Indian politics, and Narendra Modi, the tireless campaigner, are running their well-oiled machine with quiet precision. Nitish has changed sides more often than a restless sleeper, but he knows Bihar’s language — and Bihar knows his. Modi, of course, has the rare gift of turning every election into a personal referendum. Together, they form the political equivalent of an arranged marriage that somehow keeps working.

To understand why NDA will win this election, you don’t need psephology. You only need memory. I remember 2005, when Bihar’s Assembly had turned into a joke — hung like a half-torn curtain. Lalu’s camp sulked, Paswan played kingmaker, and the Congress — as always — played the chorus. The Governor dissolved the Assembly before it could meet even once. Democracy went for a walk, and Nitish Kumar returned later with a majority. Since then, the Opposition in Bihar has had one skill — practising the art of losing gracefully.

This time too, the script feels eerily familiar. The INDI Alliance partners are so busy cutting each other’s share of the cake that they’ve forgotten to bake one. Their press conferences are longer than their rallies. Their leaders appear together on stage only to outshine one another. And when they do talk about defeating Modi, it sounds like a man vowing to climb Everest without leaving his sofa.

The BJP, on the other hand, never underestimates the voter’s hunger for stability — or spectacle. They know the art of narrative. While the Opposition debates, the BJP decides. While the Opposition wonders how to divide the spoils, the BJP collects them.

A great socialist once told in 1977, “I’ve already won — only voting remains.” That man was Raj Narain, who went on to defeat Indira Gandhi in Rae Bareli. People laughed at his arrogance then, but later some people like me realised the deeper truth: he wasn’t saying he would win; he was saying she would lose. Sometimes, elections are not won — they are lost. And Bihar, today, looks exactly like that kind of election.

Tejashwi and Rahul don’t need enemies; they have each other. Nitish doesn’t need to campaign; his opponents are doing it for him. The INDI Alliance has managed the impossible — they have turned their own ambition into NDA’s campaign song.

In politics, as in love, neglect is deadlier than hate. The INDI Alliance has neglected the very voter it claims to represent. Their speeches are full of Delhi drama and little of Bihar’s dust. They talk of unity but whisper of suspicion. They fight for seat-sharing as if seats themselves were the goal, not the people sitting on them.

So, let us not romanticize this election. It will not be a battle of ideologies, nor a referendum on governance. It will be a simple story of a disciplined army marching against a quarrelling family. And families, as anyone who has attended an Indian wedding knows, are capable of destroying their own happiness without external help.

When the results arrive, remember this: NDA will win not because it is invincible, but because the Opposition never turned up for the fight. The Congress and RJD will spend the next five years explaining why they lost. Nitish will smile faintly, Modi will wave triumphantly, and the voter will move on, waiting for the next act in this endlessly amusing tragedy called democracy.

As for me, I’ll pour myself a drink, raise a toast to the great Indian voter, and watch as the losers prepare for the next election — with the same enthusiasm, the same slogans, and, alas, the same mistakes.